Market To Sell Into Fed Announcement?

With today’s flat open and steady rally throughout the day, the major market indices have begun to form what could play out as a bear flag going into the Fed announcement. Yesterday I said that we could see some short covering going into the Jackson Hole conference. It’s 11 am and the SPY is trading on fairly low volume so far (at least in comparison with the recent trend) which could mean that shorts are covering but there really aren’t many new buyers either. I think that this is likely to be the case. Neither side feels comfortable holding into Friday given the amount of volatility that we have seen which will only increase on Friday.

My prediction for the market’s reaction to the conference is the market will sell off sharply when Bernanke disappoints everyone by not hinting enough easing measures. This selloff will precede a rally into and possibly a little past Labor Day. The rally has the potential to be 1000 points or more though I don’t specifically expect that to happen.

Like I mentioned above, the market is starting to set itself up for a selloff into the Fed announcement. The bear flag on the SPY should take the market back to the pivot low of $110 where it may find double bottom support. This pattern can be negated with a close above Thursday’s open of $116.50.

The bear flag on the DIA is very similar to the one on the SPY albeit the fact that the Dow has outperformed the SPY. The DIA should find support at $106 and the pennant can be negated with a confirmation above $111.60.

QQQ is the weakest of the three which is normal because the NDX usually outperforms during bullish phases and underperforms during bearish ones. It is important to note that QQQ can take out the recent low and fall to $48-$49 without signaling another leg down in the overall market.

The reason I show the three charts and include the possibility of QQQ falling further than the others is because they need to confirm each other and QQQ has a lot of support in the $48-$49 area. So yes, I’m including a bit of Dow Theory in this analysis, but this appears to be the way this market is about to play out. If the SPY and DIA reach $110 and $106 respectively on a breakdown after the Fed meeting and QQQ reaches $49 at the same time, I will be a buyer of the market. Also, if the market trades in a tight range tomorrow and stays inside of Friday’s candle, I’ll short the market for the move down.

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Gold Extended From 3 Yr Trend, Covered Short In Q’s

Gold is extended from its 3 year trendline and will be a much better buy when it comes in for a tag of that line. Today I also took 7% profits on SQQQ, no need to be exposed to options expiration week volatility.
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Here’s an interesting chart I came across after I made the video:

This is a relatively new ETF that trades 2x inverse to the performance of gold miners. Note the tail after the pierce of support during today’s trading. If DUST stays above this level on a closing basis, it is a buy for what could turn out to be the right shoulder in a beautiful head & shoulders reversal. The best part about a long play here is your stop loss should be any close below $40.05, which would amount to just a $.60 loss on a $40 ETF. The upside in the immediate short term will be as high as $43-$44 and it could run all the way to $48 before peaking again. I will disclose this if I enter a position.

SPY, QQQ Reach Key Pivot Points

The tech sector has led the rally over the last 2 weeks but the market is reaching key pivots and looks to have put in a short term top.

Winners – GWG, MCP, Entry On SQQQ

Winners:
GWMGF – +23%
MCP – +20%

Loser: ZSL -4.5% exit price – $18.48.

ZSL had some solid gains Friday but the gap lower on Tuesday is what caused me to let this one go. Good portfolio management limited the downside risk on this one and silver has since surged so this turned out to be a loser, but not a detrimental loss.

On June 16th I said the bottom was put in on Great Western (GWMGF) and entered at $.623. The stock traded lower during the day making a bottom at $.574 but no new low was made after that day and the stock is now trading at $.81 for a gain of 23%. Short term downside would be the 50 MA and short term upside would be $.90.

On the same day I said that MCP was also a safe buy as long as it stayed above the $46.40 low and since then, it is up 20% though MCP was up as much as 25% a few days ago.

With the tag of the double top today, I went short the Q’s via SQQQ at $21.98. The reason why I like this short so much is because the upside is for the Q’s to fall back to 2840, (2%) (roughly 4% on SQQQ) and 2770 (4%) (roughly 8% on SQQQ), while the downside is less than 10 points. Confirmation above 2880 would be a sell but that level is only 8 points away so the downside risk is very limited.

Sell Side Equity Plays

Video Blog: Update AG, MCP, Triangle Setup In Major Indicies